New · Catalyst Momentum Engine
Fires before
the market
reprices.
Every meaningful price move starts with a catalyst — a headline, a data print, a wallet cluster. Catalyst detects it the moment it happens and tells you before the market has finished reacting.
Monitors 24/7
Price & news triggers
Scored 1–10
09:14:32
Trump tariffs >30% on China
8.4 / 10
⚡ FIRED → The Edge
09:07:18
Fed rate cut March 2026
6.1 / 10
📰 RSS — Bloomberg headline match
08:51:44
Bitcoin above $120k by Q2
7.9 / 10
📈 Price moved +11pp in 15 min
08:44:02
UK snap election 2026
3.2 / 10
✕ Score below threshold — discarded
08:31:09
Iran nuclear deal by June 2026
9.1 / 10
⚡ FIRED → The Edge
01 — How it works
From trigger to
alert in seconds.
alert in seconds.
Catalyst runs a continuous background loop across every market in your watchlist. When something moves, the pipeline scores it, applies deduplication, and — if the signal clears the bar — fires a real-time alert to The Edge before anyone else has processed it.
01 — Monitor
Watchlist scan
Every 10 minutes, the engine polls the live price of each market in your watchlist via the Polymarket API, and simultaneously scans a curated set of RSS feeds for breaking headlines that match market keywords.
02 — Trigger
Detect the signal
Two trigger conditions are evaluated independently. Price move: did the YES price shift 8+ percentage points since the last snapshot? News: did a headline under 90 minutes old match the market's keyword set?
03 — Score
1–10 quality gate
Every triggered signal is scored 1–10 across five factors: price delta magnitude, headline recency, market category, volume depth, and smart money activity. Signals below 5 are discarded — automatically. You only see the ones that matter.
04 — Alert
Fire to The Edge
A scored signal ≥ 5 that clears deduplication triggers a Claude analysis: full thesis, market context, directional call, and urgency rating. The formatted alert posts to The Edge Telegram channel within seconds. You act while the window is open.
02 — Trigger types
Two ways a catalyst
fires.
fires.
Catalyst detects market-moving events via two independent mechanisms. Either one is enough to start the scoring pipeline — and a market can receive both trigger types independently.
Price Move
When the market reprices faster than news travels
Every 10 minutes, Catalyst snapshots the YES price of each watched market and compares it to the reading 15 minutes ago. If the price has moved 8 or more percentage points in either direction, a trigger fires.
Price moves at this magnitude are rarely random. They nearly always mean someone with information — a smart money wallet, an algorithmic trader with a news feed — has acted before the broader market has caught up. Catalyst surfaces that window before it closes.
The size of the price delta feeds directly into the score: an 8pp move scores lower than a 20pp move. The bigger the anomaly, the more urgently you need to know.
Price moves at this magnitude are rarely random. They nearly always mean someone with information — a smart money wallet, an algorithmic trader with a news feed — has acted before the broader market has caught up. Catalyst surfaces that window before it closes.
The size of the price delta feeds directly into the score: an 8pp move scores lower than a 20pp move. The bigger the anomaly, the more urgently you need to know.
Live example
Fed holds rates in May 2026
08:14 → YES: 54¢
08:29 → YES: 71¢ ( +17pp )
Score contribution: +4.3 pts
08:14 → YES: 54¢
08:29 → YES: 71¢ ( +17pp )
Score contribution: +4.3 pts
Breaking News
The headline hits before the price does
Catalyst monitors a curated set of RSS feeds from financial and political news sources — Reuters, Bloomberg, AP, and category-specific feeds — and checks each new headline against the keyword sets of every market in your watchlist.
When a headline under 90 minutes old matches a watched market's keywords, a trigger fires. The recency is critical: a 30-minute-old headline on a market that hasn't repriced yet is an opportunity. A 6-hour-old headline is noise.
Headline age is the single biggest multiplier in the scoring model — a fresh headline on a flat price is the highest-priority signal the engine can produce.
When a headline under 90 minutes old matches a watched market's keywords, a trigger fires. The recency is critical: a 30-minute-old headline on a market that hasn't repriced yet is an opportunity. A 6-hour-old headline is noise.
Headline age is the single biggest multiplier in the scoring model — a fresh headline on a flat price is the highest-priority signal the engine can produce.
Live example
Feed: Reuters — Breaking
Headline: "Qatar mediators confirm Gaza ceasefire pause"
Matched market: Gaza ceasefire by April 2026
Headline age: 14 min · Score bonus: +3.1 pts
Headline: "Qatar mediators confirm Gaza ceasefire pause"
Matched market: Gaza ceasefire by April 2026
Headline age: 14 min · Score bonus: +3.1 pts
03 — Scoring model
Not every trigger
is worth your attention.
is worth your attention.
The score exists to protect signal quality. Markets move for reasons that don't matter all the time. Catalyst applies five scoring factors and a composite adjustment, then gates on a minimum of 5/10 before running a single API call or firing any alert.
Price Delta Magnitude
The raw size of the price move in percentage points. Larger moves indicate more informed trading activity and get disproportionately higher scores — a 20pp move signals genuine information asymmetry, not noise.
×2.5 multiplier
Headline Recency
How many minutes ago the triggering headline was published. Fresh headlines (under 30 min) get the maximum bonus. Stale headlines (60–90 min) get a small bonus. Over 90 minutes and the headline trigger doesn't fire at all.
×3.0 multiplier
Market Category
Not all market categories are equally sensitive to news. Politics and macro markets react fast and resolve cleanly — they get a category bonus. Entertainment and novelty markets are inherently noisy and score lower on this factor.
+0.5–1.5 pts
Market Volume Depth
Total USDC volume on the market. Higher-volume markets have more liquidity, tighter spreads, and more informed participants — a move in a deep market carries more information signal than the same move in a thin one.
+0–1.0 pts
Smart Money Presence
Whether any Tier-1 Oracle wallets hold positions in the triggered market. Smart money co-occurrence is the strongest confirmation signal — it means the move is likely information-driven rather than algorithmic or random.
+1.5 per wallet
Composite score example
8.4
out of 10 · will fire
Score breakdown
Price delta (17pp)+3.4
Headline age (14 min)+2.8
Category (politics)+1.5
Volume ($2.1M)+0.7
Smart money+0
0
Gate: 5
10
≥ 5.0 — Runs analysis✓
≥ 7.0 — Fires to Edge✓
< 5.0 — Discarded✕
04 — The alert
What lands in
The Edge.
The Edge.
When a signal passes the scoring gate, Catalyst runs a full AI analysis — market context, directional assessment, catalyst breakdown, and urgency rating. The output is a structured alert pushed to The Edge Telegram channel before anyone has had time to process the news manually.
Live alert — The Edge channel
Whale only · real-time
Alert format
⚡ CATALYST ALERT · Score 8.4/10
Trump tariffs >30% on China by April
JAKUU: NO · Fade at 78¢
Markets are pricing in near-certainty of escalation based on 3 leaked memos. Catalyst: Senate floor vote on exemptions tomorrow — historically moves tariff markets 15–20pp on pass. Crowd is 27¢ too confident.
What every alert includes
Market name and current price. Always displayed first — no hunting for context.
JAKUU's directional call (YES / NO / FADE) with a specific entry price, fair value estimate, and the edge in cents. You know whether to act and at what price in three seconds.
Trigger explanation. Why this fired — the price delta, the headline, or both — and how long ago the catalyst hit. Age matters: a 10-minute-old headline on an unmoved market is a different opportunity than a 45-minute-old one.
Urgency classification. HIGH means the catalyst could resolve within days and the window is open now. MEDIUM means you have time. LOW means this is informational — watch, don't rush.
Score and confidence. So you can weight your position sizing relative to Catalyst's own certainty about the signal quality.
JAKUU's directional call (YES / NO / FADE) with a specific entry price, fair value estimate, and the edge in cents. You know whether to act and at what price in three seconds.
Trigger explanation. Why this fired — the price delta, the headline, or both — and how long ago the catalyst hit. Age matters: a 10-minute-old headline on an unmoved market is a different opportunity than a 45-minute-old one.
Urgency classification. HIGH means the catalyst could resolve within days and the window is open now. MEDIUM means you have time. LOW means this is informational — watch, don't rush.
Score and confidence. So you can weight your position sizing relative to Catalyst's own certainty about the signal quality.
05 — Access
What each tier
can see.
can see.
The Catalyst Log — your historical view of every triggered signal, scored and explained — is a Pro feature. Real-time alerts to The Edge are Whale-only. Free accounts are not eligible for Catalyst access.
Free
Free account
- Catalyst Log
- Catalyst alert history
- Score breakdowns
- Watchlist management
- Real-time Edge alerts
Pro
Pro account
- Full Catalyst Log — all signals scored and explained
- 30-day alert history with score breakdowns
- Filter by market, trigger type, and score band
- See which alerts were discarded and why
- Real-time Edge alerts
Whale
Whale account
- Everything in Pro
- Real-time alerts to The Edge Telegram
- Full alert history — no 30-day cap
- Admin watchlist management
- Priority queue — alerts never batch or delay
Stop watching
the market catch up.
Catalyst runs 24 hours a day so you don't have to. When the signal fires, you see it first. That's the entire edge.
No card required on free · Cancel any time · Not financial advice