Black Swan Signals

The crowd is wrong.
Here's the evidence.

Black Swan calls are high-conviction contrarian positions — markets where the consensus price is significantly off fair value due to overlooked catalysts, tail risk, or narrative bias. These are not likely outcomes. They are underpriced possibilities the crowd is ignoring. Each call includes JAKUU's full thesis, fair-value estimate, and edge in points. Every outcome is tracked publicly.

Calls issued
—
All time
Win rate
—
Resolved calls
Avg edge
+18¢
On winning calls
Public record
100%
Outcomes tracked
How the engine works

Most prediction market participants anchor to consensus. JAKUU's Black Swan engine runs the opposite direction — scanning for markets where the crowd has formed a confident opinion based on incomplete or misread information.

01 — Scan
Finding the divergence
The engine continuously compares Polymarket prices against derivatives markets, polling data, and financial instruments covering the same event. When a meaningful spread opens — typically 15+ percentage points — it flags the contract for deeper analysis.
02 — Analyse
Testing the thesis
JAKUU identifies why the crowd is wrong — overlooked institutional positioning, narrative anchoring, misread tail risk, or a known mechanism the market has stopped pricing. A call is only issued when a specific, falsifiable mechanism can explain the mispricing.
03 — Publish
Full thesis, publicly tracked
Each call includes the fair-value estimate, the identified mechanism, the counter-catalyst, and a conviction score 1–10. Edge subscribers receive entry levels 4 hours ahead of The Surface. Every resolution — WIN, LOSS, or PENDING — is logged publicly. No edits. No deletions.
Live calls